NWS has been in a steep down trend for the past 18 months with the sellers in control. This month has given us a confirmation that the buyers have taken over control.

On the weekly chart, it can clearly be seen the down trend has been broken and a Higher Trough and Higher peak have formed above it. The trough that was confirmed with the close of today’s bar is being supported by the 50% Fibonacci Retracement and a past support line. This stock now has a high probability chance of reaching at least $15.00.

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The XAO rejected the Head and shoulder neckline we spotted last week and used past resistance and Moving Averages (MAV) as support for the bounce.

This is currently a strong bullish signal. The next resistance level is 4050. However if support at the Mav’s and weekly support line fail, the next area of support is 3500.

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MAP has been channelling down since October 2007. May 2009 saw the stock break up and out of the channel which was the first sign that a change of trend could be happening.

The second indication of a possible trend change was the Higher Major Peak. A higher major trough would confirm the bulls have taken control.

The third indication that the trend could be changing has happened in the last two week with the two well respected Moving Averages (MAV”s) crossing over to a bullish move.

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The XAO this week, retraced any ground made up last week. Alot are wondering if the is a sign of the bull run ending.

The short term trend is still up and this has not yet been broken. The two significant Moving Averages (MAV) have crossed over to a bullish indication. It currently sits on an area of four major supports. A weekly support line, a six month up trend line and two MAVs. This is showing the odds are stacked in favour of a rebound and trend continuation next week.

However, there is a small head and shoulder pattern on the daily chart which is a bearish signal if the neckline is broken. If the head and shoulders pattern was confirmed it would be in the opposite direction to the current trend. This makes it less likely to be confirmed, but is still a possibility.

For the moment the charts are still indicating bullish.

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Alot of stocks with in the financial sector have broken higher in recent weeks. Nab ha remained in a trading range of $20.00 to $22.00 since the beginning of March.

A stock cannot stay in a trading range permanently. Usually the longer the stock stays in the trading range the stronger the breakout. NAB has not only been in consolidation but squeezing in tighter in the last few weeks. With all this pressure, the breakout is likely to be strong.

After buyers managed to break out of the 18 month down trend, a higher peak (bullish) was formed as NAB went into consolidation. The strong break out and consolidation pennant are a flag pattern that has a bullish projection target of $30.00, however there is a significant resistance line at $25.00.

Should NAB break up from the consolidation at conservative target of $25.00 could be reached.

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Early in the week, the XAO had heavy moves to the down side but managed to gain back most of the losses by the close of session Friday. In all the talk about how far the market could fall, was there signs it would be short lived?

As seen in the daily chart below the XAO has two key Moving Averages (MAV) that the XAO has respected over the last 5 years.

When taking a closer look at the daily chart, it’s evident the crossover of the two MAV’s happened prior to the market fall this week. This cross over was a bullish signal that had added strength by the higher peak created above this. Though the drop was quick, technically it would have been reasonable to expect support at the MAV’s, which is what happened. Now there is and Higher Peak (HP) and a Higher Trough (HT) above bullish crossed MAV’s. This is a significant Bullish Signal.

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When considering a position in the Market, know if the buyers or the sellers are in control, is key. Technical Analysis techniques can help us determine who has the control.

Peaks and Troughs is a very powerful tool to use when looking at who is in control. Higher Peaks and Higher troughs tells us the buyers have control as there are new highs (PEAKS) being made each rally. And on each pull back the low (TROUGH) is higher than the previous low.

Keeping an eye out for a change in role can keep us out of a turning market and help to change our view early on in the new move to take full advantage.

JHX chart has recently indicated that the sellers are losing control and the buyers are coming in stronger. The buyers have been able to push through the previously respected down channel in late March. This also created the first higher peak. Now there is a pull back in play. If the stock rebounds off the channel’s top trend line and support at $3.80, a higher trough will be created. This is confirmation the buyers have taken control and the stock is likely to see at least the previous high at $5.15 or next resistance at $5.50.

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TOL has been making consistent Higher Peaks and Higher Troughs in a channel since the beginning of March. Now at a significant support what could be the next possible target for this stock?

A potential Double Bottom could forming on the $6.45 weekly support line. Should this be validated with another Higher Trough it is likely TOL could head to at least $7.50 which is the next resistance level in conjunction with the overall down trend.

If the Double Bottom fail a retest of the next support level down at $5.85 is likely.

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LLC has been channelling down since February 2008. Now the stock ha broken free from this channel what can we expect?

Late March of this year LLC broke out of a 16 month down trend channel to form the right hand shoulder of an Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern (INH&S). The neck line is at a resistance line of $7.85. Should the stock breach the neckline the target (distance measured from the top of the head to the neckline, then projected forward from the breakout), is $10.50 which is also a significant weekly resistance line.

If the INH&S fails and the $7.85 resistance line is validated again by a rebound a retest of $5.00 is likely.

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HVN (Harvey Norman) is looking stronger in the weekly chart, with indications the Bulls are back in control.

After breaking free of the down trend channel that has been valid for 12 months, not only was the first Higher Peak (HP) formed but this week’s closing bar was a confirmation of a Higher Trough (HT). This HT was supported by the previous down trend channel, a significant Moving Average (MAV) and a weekly support line.

The daily chart supports what has been discussed above on the weekly chart. In addition the two commonly used MAV’s have now crossed Bullish and the HT has been formed above them both. It is now likely a retest of $2.95 may happen. If this level continues to support the stock, this will be a second HT and a retest of $3.45 is likely.

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