September 21, 2010

Wheat, Corn and Soybean Complex Market Commentary Report for 06-23-2010

By Planet Wealth

pstrongWheat Market Recapnbsp;for 6/23/2010 /strong/p
pSeptember Wheat finished unchanged at 475 3/4,nbsp;2 3/4 up from the low and 6 1/4 off the high. December Wheat closed down 1 3/4 at 502 1/2. This wasnbsp;6 1/2 off the high and 1 1/4 up from the low.nbsp;nbsp;/p
pDecember wheat was stronger than either soybeans or corn today, but it slid late in the session to finishnbsp;lower. The December contract lost ground to July which closednbsp;marginallynbsp;higher. Traders said that todays relative support in wheat came from spreaders versus corn and from weather with wet conditions causing some concern over quality issues for soft red wheat that has not yet been harvested. Traders noted that support also came from improved demand from wheat importers in recent weeks. The US has been frozen out of most of the huge published tenders in North Africa and the Middle Eastnbsp;in recent days, but last weeks export sales were nearly 1 million tonnes, a sharp increase over previous weeks. Tunisia is in the market for 50,000 tonnes of soft wheat, adding to the recent spurt in demand from the Mediterranean Basin. Todays rain pushed a bit farther south in the north central Midwest than some had predicted and this is adding to the already saturated soil moisture levels in some areas. Rain in Canada is also seen as an ongoing source of support. Statistics Canada reported today that Canadian wheat acreage would total 22.720 million acres this year, down 9.2% from last year. But, the survey was taken prior to some of the worst of the recent rains in the Canadian prairie so StatsCan is expecting a further downward revision./p
pWith todays relative support in the wheat, traders might want to take a peak at the commercial traders.nbsp;nbsp;The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the a href=http://span class=posible_changer id=spin_57 onclick=ShowSpinOptions(57)commodity/spanandderivativeadv.com/ target=_blankCommodity Futures /aTrading Commission a href=http://cotsignals.com/ target=_blankCommitment of Tradersnbsp;/areports.nbsp; Our thought is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows honest value like the people who produce it or, have tonbsp;use it.nbsp; In fact, it is precisely nbsp;their sense of value that provides the commodity markets rhythmic meanderings that swing traders like so much.nbsp; Lets face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices.nbsp; Therefore, if Commercial traders are buying wheat, we should be able to incorporate this into our a href=http://commodityandderivativeadv.com/services/systems target=_blankcommodity trading system/a./p
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pstrongCorn Market Reportnbsp;for 6/23/2010 /strong/p
pSeptember Corn finished down 5 1/2 at 355 1/2, 5 3/4 off the high and 3/4 up from the low. December Corn closed down 6 1/2 at 365 1/2. This was 1/2 up from the low and 6 3/4 off the high./p
pDuring most of the overnight session December corn traded at marginally lower levels, before selling off to below yesterdays lows to start the day session. The December contract trimmed its losses after the open, but then slowly retreated into early afternoon, posting a new low for the day prior to the close. Traders said that a cooler forecast from late Sunday into the first days of July helped to generate selling overnight, with the sharp drop in crude oil and weak economic data also contributing to the weak tone to start the day session. Selling by spreaders versus wheat was also said to be a factor and the dry weather forecast for the Midwest was seen as a relief for crops in many regions of the central Corn Belt which have received too much rain in the past two weeks. Tomorrow morning thenbsp;USDA will issue its latest weeklynbsp;Export Sales report. Sales need to average just 219,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA current export projection for 2009/10./p
pstrongSoybean Complex Market Commentarynbsp;for 6/23/2010 /strong/p
pnbsp;August Soybeans closed down 12 at 946,nbsp;3/4 up from the low and 11 1/2 off the high. November Soybeans finished down 12 1/2 at 923 1/2. This wasnbsp;12 1/4 off the high and 2 1/2 up from the low./p
pNovember soybeans started to ease late in the overnight session and then sold off to below yesterdays lows early in the day session. The market pulled back from those lows into early mid session before resuming the slide and making new lows for the day prior to the close. Traders said that a sharply lower crude oil market and a more favorable weather forecastnbsp; into next week set a negative tone from the outset today. There is a chance of moderate rains in the Delta in the next few days. Some forecasts are calling for a dry patch in the Midwest during the 6-10 day period. Traders said that weak economic data, including a very poor New Home Sales number for May and an unexpected increase in stocks of crude oil in the US added to the selling pressure today. Statistics Canada reported today that canola seedings down 10.5% versus last year at 17.9 million acres. But, they noted that their survey was made before some of the recent heavy rains and that this could mean a further downward revision in acreage on subsequent reports. Before the opening on Thursday, traders will view two demand reports with weekly export sales news and the monthly Census crush report./p
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pAugust Soymeal closed down 4.4 at 279.5. This was 0.6 up from the low and 3.9 off the high./p
pAugust Soybean Oil finished down 0.35 at 37.75, 0.41 off the high and 0.15 up from the low./p
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pSeptember Rice finished down 0.3 at 10.54, equal to the low and 0.26 off the high./p
pDecember Oats closed down 2 at 277. This was 3 3/4 up from the low and 7 off the high./p
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pThis blog is reportednbsp;by Andy Waldock.nbsp;nbsp;Andy Waldock is a trader, analyst, broker and asset manager.nbsp; For that reason, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his customers, or his family in any market reviewed.nbsp;The blog is meant to develop a discussionnbsp;and educatenbsp;those with an interest in the commodity markets. The commodity markets use a high degree of leverage and may not be suitablenbsp;for all investors.nbsp;Investing in the futures could result in considerable risk./p
pThe daily commentaries provide a summarynbsp;of any reports released that day, a recap of each commoditys traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, and a look ahead at the next days schedule.nbsp;nbsp;Market commentaries for soybeans, corn, wheat,nbsp;gold and silver are provided by CME Group./p
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