July 20, 2010

Wheat, Corn and Soybean Complex Market Commentary Report for 07-15-10

By Planet Wealth

pstrongWheat Marketnbsp;/strongstrongReviewnbsp;/strongstrongReport for 7/15/2010 /strong/p
pSeptember Wheat settlednbsp;up 37 1/4 at 596 1/4, 2 1/4 off the high and 40 3/4 up from the low. December Wheat endednbsp;up 36 1/4 at 624 1/2. This was 40 up from the low and 2 1/4 off the high./p
pDecember wheat posted the largest 1-day gain that has been seen so far during the June-July rally. Traders said that support came from weather, higher prices in Europe and a sharply lower dollar. Todays rally featured a late push to new highs for the day on which took the December contract to its highest level since January 12th. The December contract posted a substantial gain on the deferred July 2011 contract and it also managed to post more modest gains against the December Minneapolis contracts. European wheat surged to a new contract high today after setting a new 13-month high yesterday. France is a producer and exporter of soft wheat and it is on the long list of major and minor producers that have recently made significant downgrades in their production estimates. This weeks export sales were on the soft side according to one analyst, coming in at 309,400 tonnes. As of July 8, cumulative wheat sales stand at 26.1% of the USDA forecast for 2010/11 versus a 5 year average of 26.8%. Sales need to average 430,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. Wheat gained sharply on corn this morning in active trade by spreaders./p
pDecember Oats closednbsp;up 10 at 275 1/2. This was 10 up from the low and 2 1/2 off the high./p
pstrongSoybean Complex Marketnbsp;/strongstrongReviewnbsp;/strongstrongfor 7/15/2010 /strong/p
pAugust Soybeansnbsp;endednbsp;up 21 1/2 at 1019, 2 3/4 off the high and 30 up from the low. November Soybeans settlednbsp;up 26 at 988. This was 28 1/4 up from the low and 1 3/4 off the high./p
pAugust Soymeal closednbsp; up 9.3 at 307.6. This was 10.2 up from the low and 0.1 off the high./p
pAugust Soybean Oil finished up 0.48 at 38.59, 0.03 off the high and 0.69 up from the low./p
p/p
pNovember soybeans rallied late in the overnight session, and then surged to near the April highs to start the day session. The market then went past its April highest in early afternoon to trade at its highest level since January 12 before finally closing near the highs of the day. Meal gained sharply on oil on the day, although the oil market also posted impressive gains. Traders said that a variety of factors all added support this morning including an eroding dollar, very strong ancient crop export sales in soybeans, an extended hot forecast for major growing areas in the Midwest and a surging wheat market. This weeks net export sales for soybeans were 666,500 tonnes for ancient crop and 558,500 for next year for a total of 1,225,000. Net meal sales came in at 61,000 tonnes for the current year and 28,300 for next year for a total of 89,300. Sales need to average 118,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales were 13,000 tonnes for the current marketing year and 40,000 for next year for a total of 53,000. Sales need to average 9,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast./p
pstrongCorn Marketnbsp;Recap for 7/15/2010/strong/p
pSeptember Cornnbsp;finished up 8 1/4 at 392 1/2, 5 1/4 off the high and 9 1/2 up from the low. December Cornnbsp;settled up 9 at 405 1/4. This was 10 1/4 up from the low and 4 3/4 off the high./p
pDecember corn pushed past the 400 level late in the overnight session and then surged to its highest level since March 5th to start the day session. The market trimmed its gains into mid session with further selling prior to the close. Traders said that weather concerns, a lower dollar the sharp rally in wheat all contributed to buying in corn this morning, with buying by funds and commission houses a major feature in the early going. This weeks net export sales for corn came in at 678,100 tonnes for the current marketing year and 345,300 for next year for a total of 1,023,400. As of July 8, cumulative corn sales stand at 100.7% of the USDA forecast for the remainder of the ancient crop marketing year versus a 5 year average of 96.6%. For the new crop year (2010/11), sales need to average 782,600 tonnes per week to meet the USDAs export projection./p
pSeptember Rice finishednbsp;up 0.005 at 9.825, 0.05 off the high and equal to the low./p
pWith todays commentary talking mostly aboutnbsp;weather concerns and a lower dollar, traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum.nbsp;nbsp;The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission a href=http://cotsignals.com/ target=_blankCommitment of Tradersnbsp;/areports.nbsp; Our thought is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows honest value like the people who produce it or, have tonbsp;use it.nbsp; In fact, it is preciselynbsp;their sense of value that provides the commodity markets rhythmic meanderings that swing traders like so much.nbsp; Lets face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices.nbsp; Therefore, tradernbsp;should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their a href=http://commodityandderivativeadv.com/services/systemsfuture market education./a/p
pAndynbsp;Waldocknbsp;publishes this blog.nbsp;nbsp;Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, analyst, broker, asset manager and traderfor Commodity amp; Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio.nbsp; Therefore, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his customers, or his family in any commodity future market discussed.nbsp;The blog is meant for educational purposes and to develop anbsp;discussion among those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets use a high degree of leverage and commodity trading nbsp;may not be appropriate for all investors.nbsp; There is considerable risk in investing in commodity futures.nbsp; If you are interested in reading other circulated articles, commentingnbsp; on his writingsnbsp;or subscribing to Andys blog,nbsp;please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-877-990-0777./p
pThe daily commentaries provide an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, a summarynbsp;of each commoditys traded price activity, and a look ahead at the next days schedule.nbsp;nbsp;CME Group provides market commentaries for corn, wheat, soybeans,nbsp;gold and silver.nbsp;nbsp; The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the buy or sale of any futures or options contracts./p
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