October 25, 2010

Wheat, Corn and Soybean Complex Market Commentary Report for 08-10-10

By Planet Wealth

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pstrongSoybean Complex Market Review nbsp;for 08-10-10/strong/p
pSeptember Soybeans finishednbsp; down 13 1/4 at 1021 1/4, 13 off the high and 1 3/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 13 at 1022. This was 1 1/2 up from the low and 12 3/4 off the high./p
pDecember Soybean Oil finished down 0.26 at 42.23, 0.35 off the high and 0.15 up from the low./p
pDecember Soymeal closed down 4.6 at 289.8. This was 0.3 up from the low and 5.0 off the high./p
pNovember soybeans saw significant price swings on a down day today, making new lows for the day just prior to the close. Meal lost ground to soy oil despite a drop in crude oil. The dollar was considered an overall negative factor as it posted significant gains on the day. A continued drop in wheat was also considered negative. Weather forecasts continue to call for hot weather in most growing areas through Thursday with a cold front moving into the upper Midwest on Friday, bringing substantially cooler air in the northern Midwest this weekend. The hot air mass is then expected to push back into all but the NW Midwest by next week. Some forecasts call for heavy rains in southern and SE Minnesota and extreme northern Iowa with central Iowa and the far NE soybean belt getting more moderate totals. Rains hit a dry patch of central Illinois over the past 25 hours, alleviating some developing stress there. The USDA announced export sales of 400,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, 100,000 tonnes to Egypt and 180,000 tonnes to unknown destination./p
pstrongCorn Market nbsp;Review nbsp;for 08-10-10/strong/p
pSeptember Corn finished down 9 1/2 at 393 1/2, 9 1/4 off the high and 3/4 up from the low. December Corn settlednbsp; down 9 at 409. This was 1 up from the low and 9 off the high./p
pDecember corn sold off into the end of the overnight session, rallied to start the day session and then sold off through the end of the day session into early afternoon. Traders said that a lower crude oil and a higher dollar market set a negative tone today on a day that was then dominated by profit taking ahead of the USDAs reports on Thursday. Those reports include the first major field survey of the year for corn. Weather forecasts call for hot to very hot conditions through Thursday with a temporary cooling this weekend followed by more heat next week. Beneficial rains are expected in the Southeast into the start of the weekend. Traders are looking for the 2010/11 US corn crop to be 30-35 million bushels above the USDAs July forecast of 13.245 billion bushels. It should be noted that the July number was mainly a trend yield (statistical) forecast while the August estimate will be the result of a major field survey. US Agriculture Secretary Vilsack said today that he did not expect strong wheat prices to have a dramatic impact on corn acreage next spring./p
pSeptember Rice finishednbsp;up 0.215 at 10.57, equal to the high and 0.215 up from the low.nbsp;/p
pnbsp;strongWheat Market nbsp;/strongstrong/strongstrongCommentary/strongstrong/strongstrong Report for 08-10-10/strong/p
pSeptember Wheat endednbsp;down 17 3/4 at 694 3/4, 23 1/2 off the high and 4 3/4 up from the low. December Wheat settled down 17 at 726 3/4. This was 4 3/4 up from the low and 23 off the high./p
pNearby September and December wheat continued to go lower today despite an attempt to rally overnight and again at the start of the day session. December wheat finished near the lows of the day, losing sharply to deferred contracts amid active bear spreading. KC and Minneapolis also gained on the Chicago December contract. Traders indicated that this may be part of the overall evening up process ahead of the USDAs Crop Production report on Thursday. Traders will be focusing on their production estimate for Russia, but there is still a fantastic deal of uncertainty over how huge the losses are, and some forecasts call for the drought to last another 10 days. Traders attention is turning to the winter wheat outlook in Russia where current extreme dryness could prevent planting of a substantial part of the winter wheat crop if the drought continues into the fall. One analyst noted that this is a huge if, although current forecasts show no end in sight for the drought. Also, it will take above normal rainfall over the next several weeks to end the drought and get soil moisture levels up to the point where they will generate seed germination and sustain early plant development. Russian customs data indicate that wheat exports to non-CIS countries were up 35% over last year during the first 6 months of the year. Traders are looking for a marginal increase of about 15 million bushels in the US all-wheat crop production estimate this Thursday. This is mainly for spring wheat and durum wheat since those are the crops that are still developing. Egypt is in the market for 55,000 to 60,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat, although the GASC buying agency said that it is not seeking bids from Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan or Romania. The USDA announced a sale of 120,000 tonnes of wheat to Egypt./p
pDecember Oats endednbsp; down 8 1/4 at 284. This was 2 3/4 up from the low and 6 off the high./p
pAfter readingnbsp;ï#187;#191;todays aï#187;#191;nï#187;#191;aï#187;#191;lï#187;#191;yï#187;#191;sï#187;#191;iï#187;#191;sï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;,ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;ï#187;#191;traders might want to take a peek at the commercial tradersnbsp;nbsp;momentum.nbsp;nbsp;The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission a href=http://cotsignals.com/ target=_blankCommitment of Tradersnbsp;/areports.nbsp; Our thought is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows honest value like the people who produce it or, have tonbsp;use it.nbsp; In fact, it is preciselynbsp;their sense of value that provides the commodity markets rhythmic meanderings that swing traders like so much.nbsp; Lets face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices.nbsp; Therefore, tradernbsp;should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their a href=http://commodityandderivativeadv.com/services/systemsfuture market education./a/p
pThe daily commentaries provide a reviewnbsp;of each commoditys traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, and a look ahead at the schedule for the next day.nbsp;nbsp;CME Group provides market commentaries for wheat, soybeans, corn,nbsp;gold and silver.nbsp;nbsp; The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the buy or sale of any futures or options contracts./p
pThis blog is publicizednbsp;by Andy Waldock.nbsp;nbsp;Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, broker, asset manager, trader, and analystfor Commodity amp; Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio.nbsp; For that reason, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his clients, or his family in any commodity future market discussed.nbsp;The blog is meant to develop a discussionnbsp;and educatenbsp;those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets use a high degree of leverage and commodity trading nbsp;may not be suitable for all investors.nbsp; There is considerable risk in investing in commodity futures.nbsp; If you are interested in reading other published articles, commentingnbsp; on his writingsnbsp;or subscribing to Andys blog,nbsp;please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777./p
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